MNANGAGWA’S FINAL GAMBLE COULD TEAR ZANU PF APART

President Emmerson Mnangagwa is facing his biggest political test yet. Ahead of the Zanu PF annual conference set for 13 to 18 October in Mutare, the long-serving leader finds himself at a crossroads. Should he push forward with his unpopular 2030 political plan through a referendum, or two referenda if needed, and risk national rejection? Should he use Parliament to delay the 2028 elections and extend his stay in power through the back door? Or will he surprise the country and drop the idea of staying beyond his second and final constitutional term?

Mnangagwa claims to be a “constitutionalist” and says he will not extend his rule beyond 2028. Yet just last year, he pushed Zanu PF to adopt a resolution at its Bulawayo conference allowing him to stay until 2030. That move opened a backdoor for him to overstay, and also locked out Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, his former ally turned threat.

Back in 2017, it was Chiwenga who helped Mnangagwa rise to power through a coup against the late Robert Mugabe. But now their alliance is broken. Mnangagwa no longer trusts Chiwenga. He fears that once in office, Chiwenga may not protect him or his family. Instead, he suspects Chiwenga could go after their wealth and even throw them in jail on charges of corruption and looting.

Ethnic politics also plays a role. Mnangagwa and his faction do not want another Zezuru leader after Mugabe. They see Chiwenga’s rise as repeating that pattern. In Zimbabwe, ethnicity shapes both politics and access to resources, especially in power contests.

Meanwhile, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, a wealthy businessman and Mnangagwa’s close ally, has appeared as a surprise player. Tagwirei is not part of Zanu PF structures, and Chiwenga has made sure he stays out of the Central Committee. Although Tagwirei claims he has no presidential ambitions, sources close to him say otherwise. They believe he thinks his money can buy him influence and votes in the succession race.

Zanu PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa has also been making moves, though he insists he is not interested in the top job. His recent actions suggest he may be positioning himself in case an opportunity arises.

Then there is General Philip Valerio Sibanda, commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. Many insiders say he is the real wildcard. Mnangagwa tried to bring him into the Zanu PF politburo during the 2023 party conference in Gweru, but the plan was blocked for legal reasons. Still, Mnangagwa has not given up on him. He sees Sibanda as a possible successor, especially after his military retirement later this year.

Power in Zanu PF is no longer in the hands of the founding nationalists. It moved from the Joshua Nkomo era to Mugabe, and then to the second-tier leaders like Mnangagwa. Now it is shifting to war veterans and former generals. Chiwenga remains the most aggressive contender, with Sibanda following behind because of his powerful current position.

Still, many in Zanu PF believe that Chiwenga will crush any challenge unless Mnangagwa decides to fight hard to block him and install Sibanda.

Succession battles have haunted Zanu PF for years. Mugabe refused to name a successor and ruled with an iron fist until he was pushed out in 2017. That left the country in a broken and poor state. Now, the same cycle of secrecy, mistrust, and backstabbing continues under Mnangagwa.

The October conference could be the moment when the party either explodes from within or delays its collapse for a little longer. Mnangagwa is running out of time. And so is Zimbabwe.